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Ichsanuddin Noorsy: Patahnya Jurus Ampuh

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Dalam diskusi tentang RAPBN 2019 di Media Centre DPR-RI di hadapan puluhan wartawan berbagai media elektronik dan cetak, pada 25 September 2018 saya menyampaikan nilai tukar rupiah akan tembus di atas Rp15.000 per USD1. Kajian ini sebenarnya mengulang ungkapan tiga tahun lalu dan sekitar enam bulan lalu di tempat yang sama.

Jelas bukan merupakan kebahagiaan saat prediksi negatif menjadi kenyataan. Prediksi yang bertujuan agar kita waspada dan segera mengambil sikap antisipatif itu disebabkan fundamental makro kita memang rapuh. Maka ambang batas psikologis dilampui karena saat tulisan ini dibuat, posisi rupiah terus melemah. Padahal the Fed akan kembali menaikkan suku bunganya mendekati akhir tahun 2018.

Ambang batas psikologi adalah petunjuk batas kekuatan atau kelemahan yang dapat diterima oleh kondisi psikologi. Dalam konstruksi ambang batas psikologi tentang rupiah melemah, maka Rp15.000 adalah batas kelemahan yang optimal. Jika rupiah terus melemah, maka kondisi psikologis masyarakat sulit menerima kejatuhan itu. Artinya, tingkat kepercayaan masyarakat memburuk terhadap rupiah yang menjadi salah satu ukuran kekayaan dan kemiskinannya dan alat tukarnya. Efek memburuknya kepercayaan masyarakat ini memberi gambaran bahwa ada yang salah dengan sistem ekonomi. Maka pemberitaan media massa mengambil tajuk, rupiah melemah mendekati nilai tukar krisis 1998. Tajuk ini memberi makna bahwa krisis kepercayaan sudah makin merebak. Kendati Pemerintah mengumumkan pengangguran menurun, kemiskinan menurun, gini rasio membaik, pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,23%, dan situasi sekarang lebih disebabkan faktor eksternal (saya menyebutnya 9 tantangan dalam diskusi 25 September 2018 di media centre), tapi pemerintah juga menghadapi defisit transaksi berjalan (3% terhadap PDB), defisit anggaran, defisit keseimbangan primer (untuk bayar bunga utang, pemerintah harus membuat utang baru), serta defisit neraca pembayaran USD4,3 miliar pada kuarta II 2018. Cadangan devisa pun tergerus dari USD 130 miliar di awal tahun ini menjadi USD117,9 miliar, setara dengan 6,8 bulan impor atau 6,6 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang. Dua hari lalu, lelang SBN dari Rp50,11 hanya diserap pasar Rp20T setelah BI menaikan suku bunganya menjadi 5,75%.

Angka-angka itu membuktikan krisis kepercayaan itu terus merayap masuk ke dalam persepsi publik bahwa kebijakan pemerintah dan program-programnya ternyata bukan jurus ampuh memperkuat fundamental ekonomi. Patahnya jurus neolib ini seakan memberi pesan, negara tidak mampu melindungi ketahanan ekonomi bangsa. Masyarakat mengatasi sendiri bagaimana menghadapi serangan nilai tukar terhadap tingkat kesejahteraannya. Bayangkan, jika merujuk nilai tukar yang diasumsikan Pemerintah pada APBN 2018, maka nilai tukar telah jatuh antara 11,6% – 12,6%. Jadi walau terjadi pertumbuhan 5,23%, sesungguhnya daya beli dari mata uang rupiah justru menciut. Ini memperburuk tingkat kepercayaan masyarakat, walau inflasi tetap terkendali. Dalam kondisi yang demikian, pada diskusi di tanggal 25 September itu saya mengatakan bahwa Produks Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia sebenarnya menciut dengan merujuk jatuhnya nilai tukar. Dalam bahasa yang lain, telah terjadi transfer surplus ekonomi nasional ke luar melalui jalur keuangan.

Dari aspek inflasi, data Sosial Ekonomi September 2018 BPS menunjukkan indeks harga bahan makanan dan makanan terus melonjak. Data ini sesuai dengan kenyataan lapangan bahwa harga pangan terus meningkat. Kenaikan tarif listrik juga ikut mendorong, namun tidak demikian halnya dengan bahan bakar. Padahal harga minyak mentah dunia dalam tahun 2018 sudah meningkat lebih dari 20% menjadi USD75 per barel untuk WTI. Pada 2019 diperkirakan mencapai USD100 perbarel di tengah melambat pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia. Lalu, kenapa inflasi tetap terkendali, yakni sekitar 3,18% ?
Paling tidak ada beberapa penyebab. Misalnya, biaya kesehatan ditanggulangi BPJS Kesehatan walau BPJS defisit, biaya pendidikan dicakup APBN dan dipasok oleh Kartu Indonesia Pintar, berjalannya Program Keluarga Harapan dan transfer tunai bersyarat melalui Kartu Indonesia Sejahtera, tersalurkannya beras sejahtera, serta transfer dana ke daerah dan desa yang mencapai Rp766,16 triliun. Alokasi pembiayaan dari APBN ini yang menyebabkan inflasi karena barang impor (cost push inflation) tidak menyebabkan inflasi melonjak. Namun harus diperhatikan, bagaimana neraca PT Pertamina dan PLN ? Dihentikannya proyek 35 GW, surat Menteri Keuangan kepada PLN, kenaikan tarif listrik dan membesarnya kerugian Pertamina membuktikan, jatuhnya nilai tukar telah memperbesar kerugian dua BUMN ini. Indikator lain, harga mobil dan motor serta barang elektronik pun merangkak naik.

Tentu berbagai kebijakan telah diambil seperti menaikkan tarif impor, menganjurkan agar hasil devisa ekspor disimpan di dalam negeri, menaikkan suku bunga, mengurangi perjalanan ke luar negeri, mendorong penggunaan bio fuel (B20). Sebelumnya, Indonesia gemar mengimpor pangan dan pasokan bahan bakar tergantung pada asing di saat utang luar negeri terus meningkat serta SBN dikuasai asing 40% walau terus menurun sejalan dengan naiknya fed fund rate. Kegandrungan impor dan kegemaran pada kehadiran investasi portofolio diikuti dengan empat jenis defisit itu yang membuat Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani jujur bahwa perekonomian Indonesia memang rentan. Defisit neraca berjalan itu yang membuat ketidak percayaan melebar. Sementara BI tetap percaya diri bahwa instrumen moneter mampu menahan laju penurunan nilai tukar. Menkeu Sri Mulyani bahkan menganjurkan kepada wartawan, jangan terlalu banyak minum kopi. Anjuran ini tentu mempunyai makna pesan khusus.

Jika memperhatikan data nilai tukar sejak 1964 hingga saat ini yang saya distribusikan kepada ratusan jurnalis, struktur kepemilikan saham pihak asing pada perbankan nasional yang dominan, kepemilikan asing pada pertambangan dan perminyakan, dan penguasaan swasta atas distribusi barang dan sistem pembayaran juga berlanjutnya kondisi deindustrialisasi, maka sulit disangkal bahwa patahnya jurus ampuh otoritas fiskal dan moneter disebabkan kuatnya posisi asing mendominasi struktur perekonomian nasional. Data tentang itu sudah saya distribusikan kepada Komisi XI dan Komisi VI DPR-RI, ke Mahkamah Konstitusi sejak saya menjadi saksi ahli dalam menggugat UU Kelistrikan pada Desember 2004, dan ke berbagai instasi lain. Data ini terus diperbaharui sesuai dengan perkembangan. Ironinya, para pemegang otoritas pada masing-masing wilayah kekuasaan seakan tak mampu menyelesaikan akar masalah. Hal ini pun pernah saya sampaikan pada April 2015 saat sejumlah unsur dan tokoh masyarakat berniat menggugat UU 24/1999 tentang Lalu Lintas Devisa dan Sistem Nilai Tukar dan UU 25/2007 tentang Penanaman Modal. Dua UU ini yang merupakan bagian penting dari akar masalah itu. Selama dua UU ini tetap berlaku dan beberapa UU lain yang menganut liberalisasi keuangan, perbankan dan perdagangan tetap ditegakkan, selama itu jurus ampuh Pemerintah dan BI akan selalu patah. Krisis 3F (food, fuel, financial) akan terus menghantui. Dalam bahasa yang lain, jika melihat Presiden AS ke-45 Donald Trump melakukan deglobalisasi (bukan anti global), kenapa kita tidak mencoba menoleh ke dalam (inward looking) sambil mengevaluasi, sudahkah kita menegakkan kedaulatan ekonomi bangsa? Bukankah AS merupakan kiblat ekonomi bagi kaum pemuja pasar bebas?  (Foto:Ist)

#Jakarta, 3 Oktober 2018

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