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Hirosima dibom tanggal 6 Agustus 1945. Lydia Millet berkata, “No warning was given of the air attack & thus no escape was possible for the mostly women, children & old people who fell victim”.
Pak Prabowo membaca sebuah “warning” di buku Ghost Fleet karya PW Singer dan August Cole.
Para profesor seperti Emil Salim, Dawam Rahardjo, Dorodjatun Kuntjorojakti, Sudrajat Djiwandono, termasuk pakar ekonomi Pro Jokowi macam Christianto Wibisono, Miranda Goeltom, Faisal Basri mendengarkan dengan seksama. Mereka diam. Tak berkomentar. Pasti, mereka sedang berfikir keras.
“Indonesia would dissolve by 2030,” tulis buku Ghost Fleet.
Para cecunguk, buzzer jahat, haters, preman cyber berisik. Media sosial heboh. Framing dan pelintiran dimainkan. Targetnya delegitimasi Pak Prabowo. Badai bully dihembuskan. Intinya, mereka optimis Indonesia tidak akan bubar tahun 2030.
Denny JA mengambil sikap netral. Dia bilang, prediksi 2030 itu bisa iya bisa tidak. Sikapnya lebih baik dari pada 100 cecunguk. “I have never met an intelligent optimist,” kata Howard Jacobson (British Novelist).
United Nation menetapkan 2030 sebagai tahun Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), sebuah agenda ambisius transformasi dunia dengan budget 2-3 triliun dollar per tahun.
India dan banyak negara mempersiapkan diri. Pak Prabowo tidak melihat itu dengan Indonesia. Di situ kekuatiran yang terekspresikan dalam orasinya soal 2030.
Buku Ghost Fleet tidak sedang memprediksi. Saya kira, sebagai novel, dia bisa berperan sebagai ‘early warning’ terhadap kemungkinan yang bisa terjadi di masa depan.
Sekali pun mau dinilai sebagai prediksi, benar kata Denny JA, “bisa iya bisa tidak”.
Mengabaikan “warning” masuk kategori sombong. Di saat, banyak hal remeh terbukti benar.
Presiden Taiwan Lee Teng Hui pernah meramalkan China akan pecah jadi 5 negara. Sampai sekarang tidak terjadi. Malah China semakin kuat. Mungkin, China mawas diri dan tidak angkuh setelah Mr Lee merilis prediksinya.
Sebaliknya, 16 tahun silam, episode The Simpsons memprediksi Donald Trump menang pemilu dan jadi presiden Amerika.
Negara lahir dan mati. USSR, Majapahit, 10 Dinasti Tiongkok kuno buktinya. Teori “Siklus Dinasti” menyatakan imperium bisa lenyap. Kuncinya di Mandat Langit.
Penguasa zolim, tukang ngutang, suka bohongi rakyat, pengkritik ditangkap, alim ulama dibunuh, tanah-tanah dikuasai segelintir cukong, rakyat makan nasi aking, birokrasi korup dan iron fist adalah ciri-ciri awal detik-detik terakhir sebuah dinasti.
Mungkin itu yang dikuatirkan Pak Prabowo. Jangan disalah-tafsirkan apa lagi dipelintir. Jangan lupa diri. Eling. Bom atom itu bisa jatuh tanpa “warning”. Penyesalan bisa jadi sesuatu yang terlambat.
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