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Jokowi Sukses? Fuad Bawazier Sebut Tiga Sukses Semu Ekonomi Jokowi

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Oleh : Fuad Bawazier, mantan Menteri Keuangan.

Pertama, GDP dan ketimpangan

Bahwa benar Indonesia telah masuk dalam kelompok negara G-20 karena Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB, Gross Domestic Product/GDP) pada urutan ke-16 dengan nilai USD 1 triliun (2017). Dengan jumlah penduduk pada urutan No. 4 setelah China, India, dan USA, idealnya Indonesia pada urutan No. 4 nilai PDB-nya.

Sedangkan GDP berdasarkan Keseimbangan Kemampuan Berbelanja, kadang disebut dengan Paritas Daya Beli (Purchasing Power Parity – PPP), Indonesia berada pada ranking ke-8. Berbagai forecast memperkirakan baru pada tahun 2050 GDP Indonesia bisa berada pada nomor urut 4, sesuai dengan jumlah penduduknya.

Meskipun GDP Indonesia pada urutan ke-16, tetapi GDP per kapita masih pada urutan ke-116, sedangkan GDP – PPP per kapita ranking ke-100. Sementara nominal Gross National Income (GNI) Indonesia pada ranking 17 tetapi GNI/kapita masih ranking ke-147 dan GNI/kapita berdasarkan PPP pada ranking ke-122. Dengan jumlah penduduk 260 Juta, maka nominal GDP per kapita USD3.850 sedangkan GNI per kapita USD3.400, artinya terdapat sekitar 10% GDP yang dimiliki asing.

GDP maupun GNI per kapita ini akan lebih buruk lagi apabila dibuat kluster per kluster. Hal ini mengingat besarnya ketimpangan kekayaan yang terjadi di Indonesia, dimana 1% orang terkaya di Indonesia menguasai 45,5% kekayaan nasional, dan 10% terkaya menguasai 75% kekayaan nasional. Lebih spesifik lagi adalah total kekayaan 40 orang terkaya di Indonesia meningkat tajam dari USD22 miliar (2006) menjadi USD119 miliar (2017), atau meningkat 5,5 kali dalam 10 tahun. Sementara itu pertumbuhan 40% orang terkaya dalam 10 tahun 317%, atau 4 kali pertumbuhan nasional.

Ketimpangan ini adalah ketidakadilan yang merupakan tantangan nyata bagi Presiden Jokowi.

Kedua, Swasembada beras masih semu dan swasembada pangan masih jauh dari harapan

Dalam rentang waktu 2000-2015 Indonesia selalu impor beras dengan total 15,4 juta ton atau rata-rata 1 juta ton/tahun dengan nilai USD5,83 miliar atau Rp78,7 triliun (kurs Rp13.500). Tidak ada impor beras dalam tahun 2016 dan 2017 tetapi kembali impor 500.000 ton dalam tahun 2018.

Data tentang produksi, stok dan konsumsi beras di Indonesia dari waktu ke waktu sering simpang siur antar instansi pemerintah. Kementerian Pertanian cenderung melaporkan adanya surplus beras sementara Kementerian Perdagangan cenderung sebaliknya (defisit) sehingga mendorong adanya impor beras.

Di balik impor beras yang relatif kecil tadi sebenarnya Indonesia semakin bergantung pada pangan impor yaitu biji gandum (wheat grain) yang sebagian besar dikonsumsi sebagai substitusi beras. Artinya bila tidak ada impor wheat grain, Indonesia masih harus impor beras lebih besar lagi.

Dalam tahun 2015 dan tahun 2016 Indonesia mengimpor biji gandum masing-masing sebesar 7,4 juta ton dan 10,5 juta ton atau naik 42%. Sedangkan dalam tahun 2017 impor biji gandum 11,5 juta ton (senilai USD2,6 miliar) atau kenaikan sebesar 9% dari tahun 2016. Biji gandum ini diolah menjadi tepung terigu (wheat flour) di 25 pabrik pengolah (flour mills) yang 80% berlokasi di pulau Jawa, untuk berbagai produk seperti bakery, noodle dan biskuit oleh small and medium enterprises (66%) dan oleh big and modern industry (34%).

Pengertian atau slogan diversifikasi pangan juga sering ditafsirkan dan diarahkan kepada alternatif lain dari beras, bahkan yang bersumber dari bahan pangan impor. Pergeseran (shifting) ke pangan impor khususnya gandum, dalam jangka panjang akan semakin melemahkan ketahanan pangan nasional sebab Indonesia belum siap untuk menanam gandum. Berbeda dengan ketergantungan pada impor beras yang masih berpeluang diatasi dengan produksi sendiri.

Ketiga, Utang Pemerintah dan Pendapatan Pajak

Soal utang Pemerintah yang selama 3 tahun lebih pemerintahan Jokowi naik sekitar Rp1.200 triliun, jauh melebihi kenaikan pendapatan pajak yang stagnan sebagai ukuran kemampuan bayar utang. Pemerintah selalu berdalih bahwa utang negara yang kini berjumlah Rp4.000 triliun atau sekitar 29,5% dari PDB adalah masih jauh di bawah ketentuan Undang Undang Keuangan Negara yang batas maksimalnya 60% PDB, dan jauh pula di bawah ratio utang negara-negara lain. Utang Jepang yang sering dijadikan pembanding, ratio utangnya terhadap PDB jauh di atas 200% tetapi Jepang mempunyai ciri-ciri tersendiri yaitu:

1. Utangnya kepada rakyatnya sendiri dan kepada Bank Sentral Jepang dengan ratio masing-masing sekitar 50%.

2. Utangnya dalam mata uangnya sendiri yaitu Yen.

3. Bunganya sangat rendah hanya sedikit di atas 1%. Bandingkan dengan bunga utang Indonesia yang tertinggi di Asia dan bahkan sebagiannya masih 2 digit.

4. Kredit rating Jepang A+ alias sangat secure sementara rating Indonesia BBB.

5. Meskipun utang Jepang tinggi tetapi dari kaca mata riil ekonomi, Jepang mempunyai net international investment positions USD2.8 triliun yang berarti memiliki net external assets positive alias bangsa kreditor. Berbeda dengan Indonesia yang net international investment position-nya negatif sekitar USD400 miliar alias mempunyai net external liabilities atau benar-benar negara dengan neraca sebagai negara debitor.

Pemerintah tidak membandingkan tax ratio Jepang yang 31% PDB sementara tax ratio Indonesia kurang dari 11% atau praktis yang terendah di dunia. Pemerintah juga tidak membandingkan dengan ratio APBN terhadap PDB di Indonesia yang amat rendah dibandingkan dengan ratio yang sama dari negara- negara lain yang sering dijadikan pembanding. Begitu pula dengan debt service ratio di Indonesia yang 40% atau tertinggi di Asia Tenggara, sementara batas yang dianggap aman maksimal 25%. Sementara itu sekitar 41% utang negara dalam valuta asing. Dengan average time to maturity 9 (Sembilan) tahun dan yang bertenor (jatuh tempo) 5 (lima) tahun sebesar 40% nya, akan menjadi beban berat APBN dalam 5 (lima) tahun ke depan.

Kekhawatiran lain adalah membengkaknya utang pemerintah karena kurs rupiah yang cenderung melemah sehingga diperlukan uang dari pendapatan pajak yang lebih banyak lagi untuk pembayaran utang dalam valas.

Kekhawatiran lebih lanjut adalah keterbatasan valas untuk membayar utang dalam mata uang asing mengingat 5 (lima) hal, yakni:

1. Neraca perdagangan yg cenderung defisit. Dalam 3 (tiga) bulan terakhir ini yaitu dari Desember sampai dengan Februari 2018 mengalami defisit total USD1,1 miliar atau rata-rata per bulan USD364 juta.

2. Kenaikan cadangan devisa yang bersumber dari utang luar negeri dan hot money yang sewaktu-waktu mudah ditarik keluar negeri.

3. Tax ratio yang rendah tetapi cenderung menurun yang mengindikasikan ke depan kemampuan Pemerintah akan menurun dalam memenuhi kewajiban pembayaran utangnya

4. Sektor industri yang merupakan penyumbang pajak (tax revenue) sebesar 31% cenderung menciut karena terjadinya deindustrialisasi yaitu dari 28% (1997) menjadi 20% PDB (2017)

5. Kenaikan anggaran 2018 untuk subsidi seperti listrik dan BBM yang akan membebani ekstra APBN karena Presiden Jokowi ingin menjaga dukungan politik rakyat dalam menghadapi pemilu 2019.

Cepat atau lambat pasar akan menyadari bahwa Pemerintah akan memasuki masa-masa sulit untuk memenuhi kewajiban pembayaran utangnya.

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