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Dua Syarat Djarot Bisa Menangi Pilgub Sumut

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Jakarta – Mungkinkah Djarot Saiful Hidayat memenangi Pemilihan Gubernur (Pilgub) di Sumatera Utara (Sumut)? Politik sulit dipastikan. Tetapi sebagai sebuah cabang ilmu pengetahuan, politik bisa diprediksi. Dalam hal Djarot yang diusung PDIP sebagai Calon Gubernur Sumut, diperkirakan hanya bisa menang apabila tidak memilih salah satu sub-etnis Batak sebagai calon wakil. Jika Djarot misalnya memilih mantan Ketua Umum PSSI Prof Djohar Arifin Husin sebagai calon wakil, maka persaingannya dengan Edy Rahmayadi akan seru. Apabila diendorse oleh Jokowi, peluang menang Djarot semakin terbuka. Mengapa, Karena Jokowi berhasil mengungguli perolehan suara Prabowo di Dapil Sumut pada Pilpres 2014 lalu.

Melayu dan Jawa

Sumut adalah salah satu basis PDIP. Di daerah pemilihan keempat terbesar di Indonesia setelah Jawa Barat, Jawa Timur, dan Jawa Tengah dengan julah daftar pemilih tetap (DPT) sekitar 9 juta orang ini, PDIP selalu berhasil mendudukkan kadernya di legislatif dalam jumlah besar, di peringkat satu atau dua, baik di DPRD Propinsi maupun DPR RI.

Pada pemilu 2014 PDIP berhasill meraup 16 kursi di DPRD Sumut, atau terbesar kedua setelah Partai Golkar yang mememiliki 17 kursi. Sedang kursi DPR RI dari Dapil Sumut, dari jatah 30 kursi, PDIP memperoleh 4 kursi, sama banyak dengan kursi Golkar, tetapi lebih banyak dibanding kursi yang diperoleh partai lain.

Namun dalam even pilgub, pasangan calon yang diusung PDIP mengalami kekalahan dalam dua kali pilgub. Pada Pilgub 2008, pasangan Tritamtomo-Benny Pasaribu yang diusung PDIP dikalahkan oleh pasangan Syamsul Arifin-Gatot Pujonugroho yang diusung koalisi PKS.

Pada Pilgub Sumut 2013, PDIP mengusung pasangan Effendi Simbolon-Jumiran Abdi. Pasangan ini kembali dikalahkan oleh koalisi PKS yang mengusung pasangan Gatot Pujo Nugroho dengan Tengku Erry Nuradi.

Dua pasang cagub PDIP ini sangat dikenal di Sumut. Tritamtomo, adalah prajurit TNI yang pernah menjabat sebagai Pangdam Bukit Barisan. Wakilnya Dr Benny Pasaribu adalah salah seorang putra Batak terbaik yang sukses di tanah rantau.

Demikian juga Effendi Simbolon dikenal sebagai salah seorang putra Batak terbaik. Sementara wakilnya Jumiran Abdi adalah orang Jawa yang mempersunting seortang putri Karo marga Barus.

Dari segi etnis, kedua pasang cagub PDIP ini mewakili etnis dan agama terbesar di Sumut. Kedua pasang calon PDIP ini adalah pasangan Jawa-Batak (Tritamtomo-Benny Pasarinbu) dan Batak-Jawa (Effendi Simbolon-Jumiran Abdi).

Etnis terbesar di Sumut menurut sensus tahun 2015 adalah adalah Batak 41.95%, Etnis terbesar kedua adalah Jawa 32,62%. Selebihnya Nias 6.36%, Melayu 4.92%, Tionghoa 3.07%, Minangkabau 2.66%, Banjar 0.97% dan Lain-lain 7.45%.

Dari segi agama, kedua pasang calon PDIP itu juga mewakili agama yang paling banyak pemeluknya di Sumut. Pasangan Tritamtomo dan Benny Pasaribu adalah kombinasi Islam dan Kristen, sedang pasangan Effendi Simbolon dan Jumiran Abdi kombinasi Kristen dan Islam.

Agama yang paling banyak pemeluknya di Sumut menurut sensus tahun 2015 adalah Islam 63.91%, Kristen Protestan 27,86%, Katolik 5,41%, Buddha 2,43%, Hindu 0,35%, Konghucu 0,02%, Parmalin 0,01%, lain-lain 0,01%.

Lalu mengapa kedua pasang calon gubernur yang diusung PDIP dalam dua kali pemilu itu mengalami kekalahan?

Secara cepat bisa dijawab adalah karena identitas etnis dan agama tidak otomatis atau tidak bisa digeneralisir sebagai faktor yang mempengaruhi kemenangan seorang calon.

Hal ini karena masyarakat Sumut sudah terpragmentasi ke dalam satuan-satuan atau kelompok kelompok masyarakat yang lebih kecil. Masing-masing pragmentasi ini memiliki ego atau identitas yang berbeda satu dengan yang lain.

Etnis Batak misalnya, terdiri dari 5 sub-etnis, yakni Toba, Karo, Simalungun, Mandaling, dan Pakpak. Masing-masing sub-etnis ini, walau sama-sama beragama Kristen Protestan, tetapi memiliki gereja masing-masing. Gereja sub-etnis Toba adalah HKBP (Huria Kristen batak Protestan). Sub-etnis Karo gerejanya adalah GBKP (Gereja Batak Karo Protestan). Subetnis Simalungun gerejanya adalah GKPS (Gereja Kristen Protestan Simalungun), demikian seterusnya.

Demikian orang Jawa terpragmentasi ke dalam kelompok-kelompok yang lebih kecil. Tidak tertutup kemungkinan kelompok terpragmentasi setelah berakulturasi dengan kelompok – kelompok masyarakat yang ada di Sumut, tetapi tetap mempertahankan identitas mereka sesuai tradisi asal mereka sesuai dengan nama perkampungan mereka di sekitar perkebunan di Sumut seperti Karang Anyar, Karang Sari, Sidourukun, Sidodadi.

Pragmentasi atau pengelompokan-pengelompokan ini melahirkan orientasi politik yang tentu saja berbeda satu sama lain. Seperti apa orientasi politik yang berkembang?

Tidak tertutup kemungkinan banyak varian, karena masing-masing memiliki kombinasi sendiri-sendiri. Ada kombinasi antara etnis dan agama, ada kombinasi antara etnis dan ideologi, ada yang merupakan kombinasi antara etnis, agama dan ideologi dan lain sebagainya.

Kuat diduga fragmentasi masyarakat inilah faktor yang membuat dua pasang cagub yang diusung PDIP di Sumut kalah dalam dua kali pilgub. Jumlah masyarakat yang terwakili oleh PDIP dan suka dengan pasangan yang diusung, kalah banyak dibanding kelompok masyarakat yang diusung koalisi partai pemenang.

Siapa pasangan yang memenangi dua kali pilgub Sumut? Pilgub 2008, pasangan pemenang adalah Syamsul Arifin-Gatot Pujonugroho yang diusung koalisi PKS, Golkar, Nasdem. Pilgub Sumut 2013, dimenangkan pasangan Gatot Pujo Nugroho dengan Tengku Erry Nuradi juga diusung koalisi PKS, Hanura, PBR, Partai Patriot, dan PKNU.

Jika diperhatikan kedua pasang pemenang ini tidak ada unsur Batak. Syamsul Arifin adalah orang Melayu, Gatot Pujonugroho orang Jawa, dan Tengku Erry Nuradi juga orang Melayu. Populasi orang Melayu di Sumut hanya mencapai 4,92%, sedangkan populasi orang Jawa 32,62%.

Jumlah pemilih sesuai daftar pemilih tetap (DPT) mencapai 8.848.551 pemilih. Jumlah golput 43% dari total DPT. Jumlah yang memberikan suaranya dengan demikian hanya sekitar 5.000.000 orang. Pasangan Syamsul Arifin dan Gatot Pujonugroho memenangi Pilgub Sumut dengan memperoleh 27,67% suara atau sekitar sekitar 2,5 juta. Sementara populasi etnis Jawa (32,62%) dan etnis Melayu (4,92%). Ini berarti tidak semua etnis Jawa yang memilih Pasangan Syamsul Arifin dan Gatot Pujonugroho. Sebagiannya mungkin memilih pasangan Tritamtomo-Benny Pasaribu yang merupakan kombinasi Jawa-Batak.

Pada Pilgub 2013, pasangan Gatot Pujonugroho – Tengku Erry Nuradi menang dengan perolehan suara sebesar 1.604.337 atau 33 persen. Sementara pasangan Effendi MS Simbolon- Jumiran Abdi hanya meraih 1.183.187 suara atau 24,34 persen.

Sangat jelas bahwa unsur Batak tidak menjadi faktor bagi orang Batak dalam Pilgub Sumut. Setidaknya terlihat dari jumlah pemilih pasangan Effendi Simbolon yang jauh lebih kecil ketimbang populasi atau jumlah pemilih dari etnis Batak.

Mengapa faktor Batak tidak menjadi faktor bagi orang Batak dalam Pilgub Sumut? Karena semua sub-etnis Batak masing-masing memiliki ego atau identitas sendiri-sendiri. Di antara sub-etnis Batak bahkan ada kecenderung saling me-reject

Dua Syarat

Masyarakat Sumut agak unik. Berkembangnya ego di masing-masing sub-etnis Batak membuat etnis Batak malah menjadi handicap atau faktor negatif dalam Pilgub Sumut, karena adakalanya terjadi aksi saling me-reject.

Yang diuntungkan adalah etnis non-Batak. Karena sub-etnis Batak akan bersikap, lebih baik jabatan gubernur diserahkan pada orang lain (Jawa atau Melayu) ketimbang kepada salah satu sub-etnis Batak.

Ini yang membuat etnis Batak yang mayoritas di Sumut selalu kalah dalam pilgub. Ini pula yang membuat dua kali Pilgub Sumut dimenangi etnis mintoritas Melayu (Syamsul Arifin) atau etnis Jawa (Gatot Pujonugroho).

Lalu apakah dengan demikian Djarot Saiful Hidayat yang diusung PDIP pada Pilgub 2018, berpeluang menang? Pengalaman Tritamtomo yang juga Jawa, mengindikasikan peluang Djarot kecil untuk memenangi Pilgub Sumut 2018.

Dikatakan demikian karena Tritamtomo tidak asing bagi masyarakat Sumut karena pernah menjadi Pangdam Bukit Barisan. Sementara Djarot tidak memiliki pengalaman di Sumut. Jadi, Tritamtomo yang sudah dikenal saja kalah, apalagi Djarot yang dalam batas-batas tertentu asing bagi masyarakat Sumut.

Walau demikian bukan berarti tertutup peluang bagi Djarot untuk memenangi Pilgub Sumut. Peluang Djarot akan terbuka, dengan syarat, yakni apabila tidak dipasangkan dengan salah satu sub-etnis Batak.

Edy Rahmayadi saat ini sudah ditetapkan oleh koalisi Gerindra, PKS dan PAN sebagai calon Gubernur Sumut. Jika Edy Rahmayadi (etnis Melayu) memilih calon wakilnya juga bukan dari etnis Batak, dan Dajrot misalnya dipasangkan dengan mantan Ketua Umum PSSI Prof Djohar Arifin Husin (Melayu dan Islam), maka persaingan dengan Edy Rahmayadi akan seru.

Apalagi bila Djarot diendorse oleh Jokowi, maka peluang Djarot semakin terbuka lebar. Mengapa, karena pada Pilpres 2014 lalu, Jokowi-JK berhasil menghimpun suara dari daerah-daerah etnis Batak seperti Toba, Simalungun, Karo dan lain sebagainya yang didominasi warga beragama Kristen. Perolehan suara Jokowi di daerah-daerah ini jauh di atas perolehan suara Prabowo-Hatta yang lebih banyak memperoleh suara dari daerah yang didominasi masyarakat yang beragama Islam di daerah Medan dan sekitarnya.

Setelah Jokowi menghadiri pesta adat putrinya yang menikah dengan putra Mandailing marga Siregar yang kuat Islamnya, maka peluang menang Djarot yang diendorse Jokowi semakin terbuka lebar. (Yususf/Nsntr).

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