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Catatan Akhir Tahun – Menengok Perekonomian di Tahun Politik

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Jakarta – Dua tahun ke depan disebut sebagai tahun politik. Jika pada 2019 rakyat kembali akan memilih presiden Indonesia berikutnya, pada tahun depan sebanyak 171 daerah akan berpartisipasi dalam Pemilihan Kepala Daerah (Pilkada) serentak. Seharusnya tahun ini juga disebut tahun politik, karena ada 101 daerah yang menyelenggarakan pilkada.

Adanya kegiatan politik akbar tersebut tentunya akan memberikan pengaruh kepada perekonomian. Kendati sebelum-sebelumnya pilkada relatif berlangsung aman, namun tetap saja ada yang mempertanyakan bahkan mengkhawatirkan. Hal tersebut wajar saja mengingat pada tahun `non politik` tiga tahun terakhir ekonomi masih tumbuh di angka lima persenan.

Pemerintah sendiri tak tampak khawatir dan justru optimis sembari menyatakan ekonomi sudah menemukan momentum pertumbuhan. Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengatakan, pilkada serentak 2018 tidak akan berdampak negatif terhadap perekonomian domestik.

“Sebanyak 171 pilkada tahun depan, malah menjadi berkah secara ekonomi. Setiap kali pemilu, selalu ada hal positif terhadap ekonomi,” ujar Darmin.

Pada kuartal tiga tahun ini, investasi memang tumbuh lebih tinggi dibandingkan kuartal-kuartal sebelumnya yaitu mencapai tujuh persen. Sementara itu, ekspor juga tumbuh signifikan hingga mencapai 17 persen. Mungkin ini yang disebut momentum itu.

Sementara itu, Kepala Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Bappenas) Bambang Brodjonegoro menyebut pada 2018 dan 2019 sebagai potensi untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Tanah Air. Belanja barang oleh partai politik dan juga belanja pemerintah biasanya justru meningkat pada pilkada maupun pilpres.

Ia mencontohkan pada triwulan pertama dan kedua pada 2014 atau masa kampanya pilpres 2014 lalu, pertumbuhan konsumsi lembaga nonprofit yang melayani rumah tangga (LNPRT) mencapai lebih dari 20 persen.

“Ketika masa kampanye, pasti ada kegiatan konsumsi barang yang nondurable. Dua triwulan pertama 2014, pertumbuhan konsumsi nonrumah tangga (RT) di atas 20 persen, misalnya untuk beli kaus, t-shirt, banner, dan iklan TV. Itu yang membuat di atas 20 persen,” kata Bambang

Pada pemilu anggota legislatif (pileg) dan pilpres 2014, ternyata indeks keyakinan konsumen juga tidak terganggu. Pengalaman Indonesia yang berhasil menggelar pemilu dengan sukses pada periode sebelumnya disebut memberikan persepsi positif.

Begitu pula dari jasa keuangan, Ketua Dewan Komisioner OJK Wimboh Santoso mengungkapkan hal senada. Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik di tahun politik justru akan lebih tinggi karena akan makin banyak aktivitas belanja (spending).

Wimboh tidak khawatir stabilitas ekonomi akan terganggu karena pilkada maupun pilpres dan meyakini pertumbuhan ekonomi akan tetap positif.

“Biasanya aktiviasnya malah banyak. `Spending` jadi banyak. Kalau soal ekonomi, jadi positif sebenarnya. Dan kita sudah pengalaman berkali-kali, jadi kami tidak terlalu `worry` ya,” ujar Wimboh.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi saat ini memang masih berkutat di kisaran lima persen. Pada 2017, pertumbuhan ekonomi diperkirakan hanya mencapai 5,1 persen, di bawah target APBN-P 2017 sebanyak 5,2 persen. Sementara itu, pada 2018, pertumbuhan ekonomi ditargetkan mencapai 5,4 persen.

Indonesia dikhawatirkan bisa menjadi “ekonomi lima persenan” mengingat pertumbuhan kredit yang masih relatif melambat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.

“Dengan pertumbuhan kredit hanya sekitar 8-10 persen, maka ekonomi Indonesia menjadi “ekonomi yang tumbuh lima persenan”, bahkan sampai tahun 2019,” kata ekonom senior Umar Juoro.

Pertumbuhan kredit memang masih memperlihatkan perlambatan. Berdasarkan data Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK), pertumbuhan kredit perbankan pada November 2017 mencapai 7,47 persen. Hingga akhir tahun, pertumbuhan kredit diperkirakan akan mencapai 8-9 persen.

Padahal, sebelumnya pertumbuhan kredit mampu tumbuh di atas 10 persen atau `double digit`. Kendati demikian, pertumbuhan kredit tahun depan diprediksi akan membaik.

Saat ini, bank disebut masih berhati-hati dalam menyalurkan kredit seiring dengan permintaan terhadap kredit yang berkualitas juga melemah. Bank juga masih sibuk dengan restrukturisasi tingkat kredit macet walaupun tingkatannya masih terkendali di level tiga persen.

Ketidakcocokan (mismatch) dana jangka pendek untuk penggunaan proyek jangka panjang, banyaknya proyek infrastruktur yang tingkat imbal hasil atau Internal Rate of Return (IRR) – nya rendah, permasalahan tarif, dan permasalahan struktural seperti pembebasan tanah, juga merupakan permasalahan yang tidak mudah dihadapi bank.

Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) malah memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada 2018 mendatang hanya mencapai 5,1 persen, di bawah target pemerintah 5,4 persen.

Dari sisi domestik, ekonomi Indonesia tahun depan masih akan bergantung pada kekuatan sektor konsumsi rumah tangga. Kontribusi komponen tersebut mengisi lebih dari 55 persen Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia.

“Pemerintah harus mampu menjaga inflasi agar daya beli masyarakat tidak lagi melambat. Realisasi inflasi pada tahun ini sendiri diperkirakan lebih tinggi dari tahun sebelumnya karena kenaikan TDL dan harga gas,” ujar ekonom INDEF Eko Listiyanto.

Selain itu, sektor fiskal pada tahun depan diharapkan menjadi tumpuan dalam memberikan efek ganda terhadap pertumbuhan, sehingga belanja-belanja prioritas harus terlaksana dengan baik. Belanja modal dan dana transfer ke daerah harus menjadi prioritas sehingga dapat mendorong aktivitas ekonomi.

Realisasi kredit perbankan pada 2018 juga diharapkan dapat lebih cepat menggerakkan sektor-sektor perekonomian. Harapan tersebut harus ditopang oleh kebijakan yang terintegrasi ke seluruh pihak, bukan hanya sektor keuangan.Kebijakan pemerintah di bidang harga juga harus dapat diminimalisasi, sehingga tidak kontraproduktif terhadap aktivitas sektor pembiayaan.

Kontribusi ekspor pada 2018 sendiri diproyeksi akan meningkat apabila tren harga komoditas global tetap berlanjut di 2018. Selain itu, peningkatan ekspor juga berpotensi semakin tinggi apabila pertumbuhan manufaktur terakselerasi dan Indonesia dapat secara agresif membuka peluang pasar baru di berbagai kawasan yang potensial.

Pilkada serentak 2018 yang berpotensi meningkatan konsumsi disebut juga akan menjadi pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tahun depan. Faktor Indonesia sebagai tuan rumah Asian Games 2018 juga dapat mendorong sektor pariwisata baik dari sisi konsumsi maupun transportasi. Pemerintah bahkan menyebutkan pilkada dan Asian Games akan memberikan kontribusi pada pertumbuhan ekonomi sekitar 0,2 hingga 0,3 persen.

Namun, dari sisi global, beberapa isu dapat menjadi `batu sandungan` dalam upaya mengakselerasi pertumbuhan antara lain isu proteksionisme perdagangan AS, rebalancing ekonomi Tiongkok, dan penguatan dolar AS yang memicu pembalikan arus modal di negara berkembang. Selain itu, ada juga risiko geopolitik, dampak Brexit, referendum Catalonia, kondisi Timur Tengah, ketegangan di Semenanjung Korea dan ancaman terorisme, serta isu struktural di negara maju seperti penuaan populasi.

Kendati demikian, apabila pemerintah bisa terus memperbaiki sejumlah catatan kinerja ekonomi ke depan, tampaknya kekhawatiran terganggunya perekonomian di tahun politik tak lagi beralasan.(Endi/Ant)

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  41. 온라인 카지노 가입 상담 전문 컨설팅

    온라인 카지노를 처음 접하신 분들은 카지노 게임 플레이를 즐기고 싶은데 어디서 어떻게 해야 되는지 많은 고민이 될 것 입니다. 고민의 종류로는 카지노 게임을 플레이 후 환급 처리에 관한 문제, 온라인 카지노는 어떠한 방식으로 이용하는지 대한 문제, 온라인 카지노를 이용 시 나에게 오는 피해는 없을지 많은 것을 생각하게 됩니다. 따라서 어떻게 해야 좋은 선택 인지를 많이 고민합니다. 본사와 상담 후 카지노 사이트 가입을 추천 드리고 있습니다.
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  74. 폰테크 불법 대부업체나 사기 혹은 악덕업체를 피해 안전하게 진행이 가능한 업체를 소개해 드리려 합니다.
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    바로 오늘 소개해드릴 업체인 ‘다이렉트 폰테크’때문입니다.

    다이렉트 폰테크에 대해 말을 해보자면 당연히 폰테크로 사업자등록증 정식으로 등록된 업체이며, 사전승낙서 또한 보유한 업체입니다.
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    폰테크 진행 추후 몇개월 후 해당 대리점에서 오는 민, 형사적 소송과 내용증명, 소장, 벌금 등에서 자유로울 수 있습니다.
    불법 업체를 통하여 불법 개통, 그리고 고객을 데리고 다니며 개통을 해오라고 하는 그런 말도안되는 주먹구구식 업체 말고
    안전하고 신속하게 일을 처리하고 문의부터 시작해서 상담 -> 진행 -> 입금 까지 당일에 모두 처리하는 다이렉트만의 놀라운 일처리 속도와 정확함으로
    고객 모두에게 만족을 드리는 모습에 감탄을 하게 되실 겁니다.

    실제로 다이렉트 폰테크에 대해 리뷰 또한 구글로 찾아봤는데요
    실로 많은 분들이 만족감을 표하시고 네이버플레이스 또한 매우 좋은 평가가 많았습니다.
    기타 카페 게시판의 후기나 홈페이지 인증리뷰 같은 경우에도 정말 평가가 훌륭했구요.
    무엇보다 재방문율이 타 업체에 비교 자체가 불가할 수준으로 높게 나오는것만 보더라도 얼마나 믿을 수 있을지 알 수 있는 부분입니다.

    다른것보다 폰테크라함은 안정성을 배제한다면 일반 사기와 별반 다를바가 없는 중대한 범죄라고 생각할 수 있습니다.
    그만큼 안정성이 정말 매우 엄청나게 엄청나고 굉장히 굉장하게 중요한 부분이구요,
    안정성만 보장되고 정상적이고 공식적인 업체에서 진행을 하신다면 아주 유용하게 급전마련을 하실 수 있으며 급한 상황을 잘 모면할 수 있겠습니다.

    사실상 어떠한 업계라도 일정한 가격 형성이 되어 있는데요
    예를들어 1금융과 2금융에 대출이라 치면 정해진 연이자가 있을 것이구요
    불법 대부업이나 일수, 개인돈 같이 비 정상적인 거래라면 당연히 연이자보다 말도 안되게 높은 금리가 있는 것이겠구요
    마트나 편의점에서 음료수나 과자등과 같은 물품을 구매한다 하더라도 약간의 편차는 있지만 그렇게 높은 차이는 없습니다.
    정육점도 마찬가지로 온국민의 사랑을 받는 삼겹살도 국내산 돼지 생삼겹살의 가격 역시 약간의 차이가 있을 뿐 거의 정해져 있구요
    1근에 만원이라는 가격이 형성되어 있다고 한다면 1근에 6000원 7000원이라는 가격이 나오기 힘든 부분이죠
    만일 가격표를 그렇게 해놓고 판다면 그건 국내산이 아닐 확률은.. 뭐 굳이 제가 언급하지 않아도 다들 아시겠죠..?? ㅎㅎ

    새로운 형태의 시장이 형성되어 이제 막 시작이 되고 있는 분야라면 가격차이가 천차만별일 수 있겠지만
    이처럼 진작에 기존 시장이 형성되어 자리잡혀 있는 시장의 가격이 어느정도 정해져 있는 분야라면
    일반적은 은행이나 불법이 아닌 합법적 대부업계 대출의 금리도, 시장 물품 가격도, 정육이나 기타 물품이 유통되는 가격도 다 시장가가 어느정도 정해지기 마련이고
    그 안에서 가격이 다른곳보다 정도차이가 심하게 저렴하거나 심하게 높다 라고 한다면 한번쯤 의구심을 가져봐야 할 것입니다.
    그렇다라면 폰테크 역시도 마찬가지일 것이구요.
    너무 높은 매입가는 우선 경계를 해보셔야 하는 부분이구요
    반대로 너무 낮은 매입가 역시 피해야 하는 부분입니다.
    그런 점에서 미루어 보면 다이렉트 폰테크는 투명한 가격으로 방문 고객님들 역시 하나같이 거의 동일한 금액을 받아가셨는데요
    그러한 부분 또한 각종 입금받은 내역 인증이나 리뷰에서 알 수 있던 부분입니다.

    폰테크는 다른것보다 우선적으로
    사업자등록증, 사전승낙서 확인하셔야 하며, 그 해당 등록증과 승낙서에 명시가 되어있는 이름과 일치하는지를 꼭 확인하셔야 하며
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    그리고 앞서 말했던 부분처럼 너무 낮거나 혹은 타 업체에 비해 너무 높은(고객님이 혹하실만한) 매입가라면 그것 역시도 경계하셔야 합니다.
    마지막으로 사후처리나 대비가 완벽하게 이루어지는지 꼭!!!!! 반드시 꼭!!!!! 밑줄쫙 별표 다섯개 달아두시고 확인하셔야 합니다.
    일반 정상적인 매장이 아니라면 그런것에 대한 대비가 거의 전무하다 볼 수 있으니 번거롭더라도 너무 높은 매입가만 찾아서 가려 하지 마시고
    가격이 다소 약간의 차이가 있더라도 문제가 생기지 않는 곳에서 진행을 하시길 추천드립니다.

    안정성 비례 매입가가 높은 곳은 단연 지금 말씀드리는 ‘다이렉트 폰테크’가 최고라고 할 수 있겠습니다.
    그리고 폰테크 진행 자체도 방문, 비대면, 출장 모두 가능하며 그 선택권은 전부 이용객의 입장에서 선택이 가능한 부분입니다.
    또한 지역상관없이 거리 상관없이 출장과 비대면 모두 진행이 가능하다고 하시니까요 부산이라서 대구라서 목포라서 강원도라서 등등 타 지역이라고
    그냥 넘기지 마시고 ‘다이렉트 폰테크’에 꼭 문의하시길 바랍니다.
    그리고 혹여 타 업체를 이용하시더라도 반드시 다이렉트에서 문의하여 조회와 상담 받아보시길 추천드립니다.
    잠깐 편하고 잠깐 좋자고 추후에 문제가 생기는 행동을 하실 분들은 없으실거라 믿고 싶네요 통신쪽 벌금은 터졌다 하면 최소 200부터 출발입니다 꼭 명심하시길 바래요
    그럼 지금까지 폰테크를 안전하게 진행할 수 있는 업체인 ‘다이렉트 폰테크’에 대해서 말씀드렸구요문의와 상담 그리고 진행등은 아래 이미지를 통해서 하실 수 있으니 참고하시길 바랍니다.

  75. 다이렉트 폰테크에 대해 말을 해보자면 당연히 폰테크로 사업자등록증 정식으로 등록된 업체이며, 사전승낙서 또한 보유한 업체입니다.
    그냥 일반 업체라기엔 정상적으로 매장도 운영하고 있는 곳이라서 매우 믿을만 한 곳이구요 매장도 하나가 아닌 여러 지역에 다수의 매장과 협업을 하고 있는
    큰 통신망을 보유한 곳이라고 할 수 있습니다.
    이는 정말 큰 장점이고 강점이며 폰테크를 진행하는 고객의 입장에선 최상의 조건이라고 할 수 있습니다.
    왜냐하면 보통 폰테크를 진행하시는 분들은 가성비가 좋은
    즉, 기기값은 최대한 저렴하면서 매입가는 최대한 높은 기종의 선택이 용이하기 때문입니다.
    보통의 업체들은 그러한 기종들을 구할 수 없을 뿐더러 구하는 물량에도 분명 한계가 매우 클 것이기 때문입니다.
    하지만 다이렉트는 여러 매장의 통신망을 구축하여 가성비 좋은 폰의 물량확보가 용이하며
    폰테크 진행 추후 몇개월 후 해당 대리점에서 오는 민, 형사적 소송과 내용증명, 소장, 벌금 등에서 자유로울 수 있습니다.
    불법 업체를 통하여 불법 개통, 그리고 고객을 데리고 다니며 개통을 해오라고 하는 그런 말도안되는 주먹구구식 업체 말고
    안전하고 신속하게 일을 처리하고 문의부터 시작해서 상담 -> 진행 -> 입금 까지 당일에 모두 처리하는 다이렉트만의 놀라운 일처리 속도와 정확함으로
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    그냥 일반 업체라기엔 정상적으로 매장도 운영하고 있는 곳이라서 매우 믿을만 한 곳이구요 매장도 하나가 아닌 여러 지역에 다수의 매장과 협업을 하고 있는
    큰 통신망을 보유한 곳이라고 할 수 있습니다.
    이는 정말 큰 장점이고 강점이며 폰테크를 진행하는 고객의 입장에선 최상의 조건이라고 할 수 있습니다.
    왜냐하면 보통 폰테크를 진행하시는 분들은 가성비가 좋은
    즉, 기기값은 최대한 저렴하면서 매입가는 최대한 높은 기종의 선택이 용이하기 때문입니다.
    보통의 업체들은 그러한 기종들을 구할 수 없을 뿐더러 구하는 물량에도 분명 한계가 매우 클 것이기 때문입니다.
    하지만 다이렉트는 여러 매장의 통신망을 구축하여 가성비 좋은 폰의 물량확보가 용이하며
    폰테크 진행 추후 몇개월 후 해당 대리점에서 오는 민, 형사적 소송과 내용증명, 소장, 벌금 등에서 자유로울 수 있습니다.
    불법 업체를 통하여 불법 개통, 그리고 고객을 데리고 다니며 개통을 해오라고 하는 그런 말도안되는 주먹구구식 업체 말고
    안전하고 신속하게 일을 처리하고 문의부터 시작해서 상담 -> 진행 -> 입금 까지 당일에 모두 처리하는 다이렉트만의 놀라운 일처리 속도와 정확함으로
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